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Instructions
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| Current Issue |
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| Volume 1, Issue:1
(December 2009) Published Online: December 21th 2009 |
Abstract | Full
Text
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Title:
The Temporal Lead Lag and Causality between Spot and Futures
Markets: Evidence from Multi Commodity Exchange of India
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Author(s):
K. Srinivasan
Pondicherry Central University, India
Malabika Deo
Pondicherry Central University, India
Send correspondance to K. Srinivasan, Department of Commerce
(SOM), Pondicherry Central University, Kalapet, Puducherry
605 014, India.
Telephone: 99420-99696; 94888-18116
Email: ksrinivasan1979@gmail.com
ksrinivasan.econometrics@yahoo.com.
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History:
Received 22 Nov 2009
Accepted
8 December 2009
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Abstract:
The current surge of soaring gold prices has renewed interest
on price discovery of competing markets. The purpose of this
article is to examine the temporal lead lag and causality
between Mini gold spot and futures market by taking daily
closing values for both the indices from the sample period
June 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2008 for the Multi
Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). Data properties were used
to determine the stationarity of the spot and futures market
variables by using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip
Perron (PP) tests which indicated that the two series are
integrated at I(1). The study employs Johansen’s Cointegration
test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for analyzing
the long run and speed of equilibrium between the bivariate
variables. The findings of the study reveal that, in the long
run, both the markets are cointegrated and there exists a
causal relationship between these two markets. Finally, the
results shows that unidirectional causality is running from
spot to futures market in long-run dynamics and spot market
serves as a primary market for price discovery.
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| Keywords:
Mini Gold Futures, Price Discovery, MCX, Cointegration, VECM |
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