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Instructions
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| Current Issue |
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Volume 1, Issue:1
(December 2009) Published Online: December 21th 2009
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Abstract | Full
Text
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Title:
Modelling the convenience yield in carbon prices using daily
and realized measures
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Author(s):
Julien Chevallier
Paris Dauphine University, France.
Send correspondance to Julien Chevallier, Place du Marechal
de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Email:
j.chevallier@imperial.ac.uk.
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History:
Received 2 December 2009
Accepted
8 December 2009
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Abstract:
This article investigates the modelling of the convenience
yield in the European carbon market by using daily and intradaily
measures of volatility. The convenience yield stems from differences
in spot and futures prices, and can explain why firms hold
inventories. The main findings are that (i) a simple AR(4)
process best describes the 2008 convenience yield, and (ii)
there exists a non linear relation between spot and futures
prices. The approach developed in this article captures 74%
of the explanatory power for the 2008 convenience yield variable
in an autoregressive framework, with carbon spot price levels,
moving averages and carbon futures realized volatility measures
as exogenous regressors. These results are of interest for
energy utilities, risk-managers, and traders exposed to the
variation of carbon prices.
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| Keywords:
Convenience Yield; Carbon Price; EU ETS; High-frequency Data;
Realized Volatility. |
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