International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics
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Print ISSN:1737
Online ISSN: 9210

International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics
Published by S.E.I.F at Paris
Subject areas: Finance/Economics
Frequency: Published quarterly
ISSN: 9210 - 1737
 
 
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Current Issue |
 
Volume 1, Issue:1 (December 2009) Published Online: December 21th 2009

Abstract | Full Text

Title: Modelling the convenience yield in carbon prices using daily and realized measures

Author(s):
Julien Chevallier
Paris Dauphine University, France.


Send correspondance to Julien Chevallier, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Email: j.chevallier@imperial.ac.uk.

History: Received 2 December 2009
              Accepted 8 December 2009

Abstract: This article investigates the modelling of the convenience yield in the European carbon market by using daily and intradaily measures of volatility. The convenience yield stems from differences in spot and futures prices, and can explain why firms hold inventories. The main findings are that (i) a simple AR(4) process best describes the 2008 convenience yield, and (ii) there exists a non linear relation between spot and futures prices. The approach developed in this article captures 74% of the explanatory power for the 2008 convenience yield variable in an autoregressive framework, with carbon spot price levels, moving averages and carbon futures realized volatility measures as exogenous regressors. These results are of interest for energy utilities, risk-managers, and traders exposed to the variation of carbon prices.
Keywords: Convenience Yield; Carbon Price; EU ETS; High-frequency Data; Realized Volatility.